The United States has experienced periods of boom and bust since its rich history began. Such is the basic nature of economic cycles, and of our capitalist system that governs global economic activity. Like the laws of gravity, certainties exist in economics too. What goes up, comes down—sometimes with a resounding thud.
When crises arise, as they will, public policymakers in America and other countries must be prepared to deal with them in a responsible and effective manner, and have tools at their disposal to do so. One area of economic activity that few Americans know about, much less comprehend, involves the staggering amounts and extensive uses of guaranties—issued globally by banks, other financial institutions, businesses, governmental agencies[2], and individuals themselves.
According to the latest figures published by the Fed, the aggregate amount of “Financial standby letters of credit and foreign office guarantees” in the fourth quarter of 2018 stood at more than a half-trillion dollars—$566.8 billion, to be exact—which seems exceptionally low.[3] My newest law review article deals with standby letters of credit and other bank guaranties, and with their counterparts in other areas of domestic and international commerce.[4]
The article builds on an earlier discussion of such issues, before the U.S. Senate more than 40 years ago.[5] Since then, crises have come and gone; and the issue today is what public policymakers have learned in the interim about how to anticipate and address them. As I have written:
Guaranties have been used in commercial transactions for centuries, in various contexts and in various parts of the world. Banks have not been alone in their willingness to engage in such undertakings, and have sought new methods of characterizing guaranty transactions in recent years, in an effort to circumvent legal bars as to these practices.
. . .
A guaranty is a promise by one party to answer for the payment of some debt, or the performance of some obligation, in case of the default of another party, who is in the first instance liable for such payment or performance. A standby letter of credit is merely one form of a guaranty which has been subject to increased usage by banks in this country during recent years. There are a variety of reasons why the use of standby letters of credit has increased. The primary reason from a legal standpoint is that our courts have held that national banks are not permitted to guarantee the obligations of another party.
The national banks involved have been imaginative enough, in responding to this situation, to fashion an instrument which they contend is not an illegal guaranty but is akin to a traditional letter of credit, as a means of avoiding any legal or regulatory constraints. . . .
[T]he standby letter of credit is a means by which a bank permits its customer to make use of the bank’s credit standing and goodwill in the customer’s business. . . . [T]he bank is in effect “selling off” its credit to others. . . .
. . .
Quite obviously, instead of “lending” its credit[] in certain transactions, the bank itself could provide funds directly to its customer. At the time the customer seeks such funds, however, the bank may not . . . wish to lend such monies.
. . .
[T]he use of such instruments abroad has been sanctioned owing to the fact that the laws of several countries authorize banking institutions chartered thereunder to engage in such undertakings. Accordingly, it has been determined that American banks would be at a severe competitive disadvantage if their foreign counterparts were permitted to guarantee certain transactions, while American banks competing for the same business were prohibited from doing so. It is questionable, however, whether there has ever been a conscious assessment of the risks which attend foreign transactions of this nature vis-a-vis the benefits derived therefrom.
. . .
Banks are special institutions subject to rules designed to assure their soundness for the benefit of depositors and to maintain public confidence in the banking system. The potential bank liability on a standby letter of credit, and consequent risk of loss to the depositors and shareholders of the bank, is just as real as if the transaction had been a typical lending transaction by the bank.
. . .
It is appropriate to focus on the use of guaranties in the standby letter of credit context because banks are reluctant to disclose fully or describe the various types of guaranty transactions, and because it presents a useful illustration of a high risk situation once one is able to cut through the complexities of the transactions involved.
. . .
A fee of from one-quarter of one percent to one percent, or as much as $1 million on a $100 million standby letter of credit financing, is collected by the bank for its services; and the bank is not required to commit any funds of its own, unless a default occurs.[6]
No one should deny the opportunity for U.S. banks and other financial institutions to make a profit and serve their customers, as long as they act responsibly and legally, and their solvency and stability are not put at risk. However, aggregating more than a half-trillion dollars today on the part of American banks and other financial institutions alone, standby letters of credit and other bank guaranties present enormous potential risks to the U.S. and global economies.
© 2019, Timothy D. Naegele
[1] Timothy D. Naegele was counsel to the United States Senate’s Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, and chief of staff to Presidential Medal of Freedom and Congressional Gold Medal recipient and former U.S. Senator Edward W. Brooke (R-Mass). He and his firm, Timothy D. Naegele & Associates, specialize in Banking and Financial Institutions Law, Internet Law, Litigation and other matters (see www.naegele.com and Timothy D. Naegele Resume). He has an undergraduate degree in economics from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), as well as two law degrees from the School of Law (Boalt Hall), University of California, Berkeley, and from Georgetown University. He served as a Captain in the U.S. Army, assigned to the Defense Intelligence Agency at the Pentagon, where he received the Joint Service Commendation Medal (see, e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commendation_Medal#Joint_Service). Mr. Naegele is an Independent politically; and he is listed in Who’s Who in America, Who’s Who in American Law, and Who’s Who in Finance and Business. He has written extensively over the years (see, e.g., www.naegele.com/whats_new.html#articles), and can be contacted directly at tdnaegele.associates@gmail.com
[2] For example, in a lawsuit where a judgment of more than $4 million was rendered against a bank, the bank’s federal regulator was permitted to issue a letter of credit (or guaranty) on behalf of the bank, which allowed it to appeal the verdict.
See Timothy D. Naegele, The Bank Holding Company Act’s Anti-Tying Provision: Almost 50 Years Later—Part I, 135 BANKING L. J. 315, 336-338 (June 2018) (Naegele 2018, Part I) [Timothy D. Naegele-Part I] (discussing Lucken et al. v. Heritage Bank National Association et al., U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Iowa, Case # 5:16-cv-04005, PACER Docket Sheet entry 197, paragraphs 6-8 (“Pursuant to Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 62(d), if an appeal is taken, the appellant may obtain a stay by supersedeas bond. . . . Defendants have obtained . . . a Letter of Credit in favor of Plaintiffs for an aggregate amount not to exceed $5,000,000.00, available through Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines, Des Moines, Iowa. . . . In addition, Plaintiffs and Defendants have executed an agreement setting forth the events of default which would trigger calling upon the letter of credit”)) [PACER Docket Sheet entry 197]; see also https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/2018/08/25/the-bank-holding-company-acts-anti-tying-provision-almost-50-years-later/ (“The Bank Holding Company Act’s Anti-Tying Provision: Almost 50 Years Later”)
[3] See off-balance-sheet-items
[4] See Timothy D. Naegele Standby Letters of Credit
[5] See Timothy D. Naegele, Standby Letters of Credit And Other Bank Guaranties, Compendium Of Major Issues In Bank Regulation, Committee On Banking, Housing And Urban Affairs, United States Senate 621 (May 1975) [Naegele-Standby Letters of Credit And Other Bank Guaranties].
This Senate submission and its attachments constitute a useful starting point for the discussion of this subject, and they will be referred to throughout this article. The author respectfully suggests that it might be useful for the reader to review them.
[6] See id. at 626-629, 633, 634, 635.
NaegeleBlog 
HIGH TAXES & HIGH GOVT. DEBT
How are we possibly going to pay for today’s spending by our government in California? Borrow and spend. Who secures our credit? Of course, we the property owners do, as our properties are collateral for Gov. Newsome’s expanding social spending ( Medical for all ). What happens when the heavy hitters ( high income producers ) leave California? In short, trouble.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/the-hunt-for-taxes-altering-the-economy/
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Thank you, Craig, for your comments.
Yes, California governmentally is bizarre. This has been true for a very long time, with no positive end in sight.
The rest of the nation recognizes this, and has little or no empathy.
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NO CURE FOR STUPIDITY
Needless to say, high overall tax rates ALWAYS result in low rates of economic growth anywhere in the world. So, its not only about the overall size of government, its also the level of taxation just as much. “The People” seem to have been so brainwashed (public schools ?) they can no longer recognize this simple correlation. You can bet the Liberal elites and their cronies sure do.
Sadly, its the same pattern of recognition currently exists in most other states, as well. The whole country will follow California down the Marxist Road in about 10 more years, just as soon as President Trump finishes his two terms in office. AOC and Medicare for All ?
In the future, collectivism with a vengeance is coming eventually to America. Capital will flee to Asia when it does, deflating all the asset classes that were inflated by capital flight (flows) from other countries, principally Europe and China. The dollar will weaken at that time, and we will then have our twin goals of high inflation and high interest rates. Stagflation is a com’in to town.
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Thank you too, Craig.
What you posit is a recipe for disaster once President Trump leaves office, unless his successor is like minded and equally conservative.
I do not disagree. Indeed, i believe that if Hillary Clinton had been elected, we would have been heading for a repeat of the “Great Recession” of 2008, or far worse.
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WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG WITH MORE GOVT. DEBT
Answer: Plenty
https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/us-governments-net-worth-is-now-negative-75-trillion-24868/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=sm_notes&utm_campaign=notes&utm_content=20190403_fed_debt
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Thank you, Craig. Student debt is the government’s largest asset, yet the Left and universities seek forgiveness.
The universities have ratcheted up their costs, with the expectation that they will be bailed out, which is irresponsible if not insane.
Bricks-and-mortar universities may become dinosaurs as more higher education shifts online. Again, the universities will want/demand bailouts, which must be denied.
They pushed the student loans to increase their coffers, and fund their Leftist-tenured professors; and they saddled their students with oppressive student debt in the process.
As I have written before, such educational institutions are dinosaurs, just like newspapers.
See, e.g., https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/29/are-colleges-dinosaurs (“Are Colleges Dinosaurs?“) and https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/29/are-colleges-dinosaurs/#comment-7616 (“Grad-School Loan Binge Increases Debt Worries”) and https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/2017/05/16/americas-newest-civil-war-2017-and-beyond/#comment-14564 (“Newspapers Are Dead, Not Dying“)
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MIKE ROWE’S VIEW ON JOBS AND COLLEGE
Mike has been preaching ( “Dirty Jobs” Cable series) on hundreds of thousands of high paying, (skilled) blue collar jobs going unfilled for lack of qualified applicants. Companies pay good wages for skilled help with a few years of experience behind them. College no longer qualifies.
We are not adapting to economic changes as a nation. Today, the best pay goes where its needed and a college degree is not where to find such employment for the majority of college students anymore. Been that way for at least 15 years now, yet we can’t seem to change our national priorities. We are simply addicted to debt, be it student debt, auto loan debt, housing debt, credit card debt, or national debt. All the same: digging our (national) great big hole.
Time to Get Smart, not “educated” :
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I agree, Craig; and I agree with Mike Rowe—with whom I have agreed for a long time.
As I have written—which of course is the much bigger and overriding issue:
See https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/2019/03/24/the-mueller-witch-hunt-is-over/#comment-16712 (“The Treasonous Left’s Attempt To Destroy Our Electoral College”)
The latest, as you know, are the scumbag Jerry Nadler’s efforts to subpoena the entire Mueller report; and attack and destroy the Trump presidency nonstop.
See, e.g., https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/house-judiciary-trump-mueller/2019/04/03/id/909970/ (“House Judiciary Panel Approves Subpoenas for Mueller Report”) and https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/03/politics/mueller-report-subpoena-house-vote/index.html (“House panel authorizes subpoena for Mueller report as Trump backs away from calls for public release”)
Nadler and Maxine Waters, Elizabeth “pocahontas” Warren and countless others are among the many reasons why lots of us left the Democratic Party, and will never go back.
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2008 Or Worse? [UPDATED]
Steven Pearlstein—a Washington Post business and economics columnist, and Robinson professor of public affairs at George Mason University—has written:
See https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/article/A-new-credit-bubble-gets-ready-to-burst-13911193.php (“A new credit bubble gets ready to burst“) (emphasis added)
There is little doubt that without Donald Trump, the U.S. economy might be “tanking,” with vast ramifications—and ripple effects—for the economies of other countries.
Lastly, World War I was considered the “war to end all wars,” and “The Great War,” which was triggered by an obscure event: the assassination of the Archduke in Sarajevo.
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Archduke_Franz_Ferdinand (“Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand“)
Then, along came Germany’s Hitler, Italy’s Mussolini and Japan’s Tojo, and World War II erupted. With June 6th approaching, I watched a series of discussions on CSPAN about Dwight Eisenhower and D-Day.
His granddaughter, Susan, said that she does not believe there will ever be another world war. I was struck by her naïveté. There will always be wars. It is the nature of Man.
Similarly, there have been economic depressions/devastating “recessions” for centuries, if not millennia (e.g., 2008); and some obscure event can trigger them. The presence of standby letters of credit and other guaranties might contribute to the cascading dominoes. Indeed, as I wrote in the article above:
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WARREN BUFFET COMMENTS ABOUT FUTURE
Here is what Warren Buffet said about the future as far as investing goes anyway:
“You can do your research and invest your money and make certain assumptions regarding prices and tends in the economy”. All is fine and good. Then, unexpectedly, an Archduke is assassinated. All Hell subsequently breaks loose and all your assumptions are rendered obsolete in an instant.
Such are the times we now find ourselves living-in. Nobody can predict anything even though so-many charlatans pretend to be able to do so using proprietary algorithms ( “Little Black Boxes”). Its vaudeville time again. “Interesting Times” indeed.
Regarding Growing Federal Budget Opacity from a Knowledgeable Insider (Kathryn Fitts):
https://usawatchdog.com/bipartisan-support-for-secret-accounting-to-hide-missing-money-catherine-austin-fitts/#comment-1454442
And my Further Thoughts Re: The Risks of Offshore Tourism
https://www.today.com/news/delaware-mom-beaten-dominican-resort-warns-he-still-out-there-t155206
Ongoing Dangers facing American Tourists Abroad ( Mexico, Latin America, Caribbean Islands or most anywhere, anymore). Everyone needs to keep their guard-up and develop “situation awareness” at ALL Times. Even while on vacation, you still need to constantly watch your back because nearly all Third World citizens want a piece of you or what you have. (Deep down, they hate Americans and Anglos). However, all third world peoples want to be like the White Man ( prosperous). Who would not want to be a “winner”.
So, you just never know for sure who is truly trustworthy. Without trust and confidence, commerce, trade, and eventually civilization ultimately breaks-down (collapses). We are possibly in such a period and yes, it has indeed “happened many times before”. “All have sinned and all must die and face the judgement of God”.
As a former General Biologist in the Corps of Engineers in Portland, Oregon and Range Technician with the White River Nat’l Forest on the Rifle Ranger district in Rifle, Colorado I can offer the following commentary from a professional’s point-of-View.
First, in all mammal populations, the female is the key to population levels or even maintaining replacement population levels for a whole nation, such as the U.S. or Europe. To date, All Western Democracies have not been able to reproduce themselves in recent decades to counter the trend of reduced populations. This has many economic and political implications beyond the scope of my discussion here.
Second, basic (biological) instinct of all mammals of reproductive age is to bear young and reproduce their genes back into the general population. This applies to rats, people, deer, elk or more commonly and numerously, rabbits, as well. Our culture likes to gussy it all up with notions of romance, but overall and especially collectively, its about maintaining the population levels, economy, and ultimately the survival of a whole nation and culture such as Japan or the U.S.A.
Japan has chronic below replacement level birth rates and low immigration. So, they are going to go extinct as a sovereign nation and people by the end of this century. There is no possible way to reverse the trend, absent massive immigration. Japan says “NO” to open borders. As many times previously in history, whole tribes can forever disappear from the face of the earth just because of basic biology.
The salve of importing more third world populations ( Latinos or Middle East Muslims) who are more fecund does not replace the natural biological role of birth rates at a level capable of sustaining nations or their culture (Way of Life). Ignorance of Basic Biology has huge costs, including the ultimate extinction of whole races ( Anglos) and nations (Rome and Latins) ,as well. They just interbreed with the Barbarians and their genes gradually become diluted (or contaminated). Biologically, ethnic diversity taken to extremes always leads to an extinction event, given enough time. This is our apparent fate.
As far as the Rasta Assault of a 51-year old female American Tourist in the Dominican Republic, well again, a root motivator, at least subconsciously, is purely Biological. The females of any species, be it wildlife or humans are key to maintaining population levels. Entire species of animals and birds have gone extinct over the past few hundred years. So, any action that harms females or destroys them eventually results in diminished population levels and massive cultural changes as we have experienced for the past 50 years. Its Biological.
So, the Dominican Republic male resort worker just took it out on her for no visible reason, but what he was actually acting-out was an assault on the symbol of our ability to reproduce our culture and nation, albeit very primal. This is why I give to charities like Walter Hoving Home. You have to protect the next generation if you want to survive as a race or sovereign nation. It only takes a few men to get the job done, but if the female population declines, so eventually does the overall population of any mammal. Any other social view is just so much poppycock.
https://hovinghome.org/
Whenever you thoughtfully psycho-analyze people’s particular individual motives and actions ( a favorite local or even national pass-time with the laity), what you often uncover is some pretty primitive emotions at work ( so-called “Lizard Brain”). The field of Biology ( A generalist Science) is all about life and animal behavior, starting at the cellular level and on up to the (complete) species level.
You seldom go wrong once you understand the basics and can then ignore the political commentary or pop-psyche. Is way more than a simple case of criminality when foreigners hate you (Anglos) and if given the chance, may attempt to take your life and or property. At some fundamental level, its basically war. Imagine an America populated with a Caribbean Rastafarian majority. ( Misery).
This is the lesson here. In response, President Trump should not be asking any further questions but should ban U.S. citizens from visiting the Dominican Republic. If you boycott a small, impoverished nation such as a Caribbean Island from tourist traffic and dollars, it will soon shrivel-up and the population will turn inward and destroy itself (predation, disease, and starvation).
Again, this is using smart “Biological Warfare” executed by wise public policy and economic policy. A natural two-fer ( Killing two birds with one stone). Survival not necessarily of the fittest, but the smartest or wisest in the Jungle. Stupid people and their kids are going to eventually become extinct. This is the way the world works. Genetic selection is both a biological reality and necessary evil.
The World is in-reality, one Big Jungle inhabited by many feral or wild animals masquerading as civilized man. ( The World is SHIT). It came as a rude awakening for this woman to find out the hard way most of the world is anything but civilized. This hard lesson almost cost her her life. That is the lesson here. We have had it pretty good here at home in the good old U.S.A. However, we have become very complacent and too “Liberal” at the same time for our own collective good. We better wise-up soon as a nation or face the consequences of our folly.
H. Craig Bradley
Retired General Biologist, Range Technician and Amateur Historian
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Wow, that is a mouthful, Craig. Thank you.
As I have written—before reading your cite to Warren Buffett (two “t’s,” not one):
Indeed, things can change in an instant.
Also, American travel abroad is “dicey.” Friends of mine’s wonderful son was killed in Baja, and his organs were harvested. So so sad, to this day.
See https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/2017/06/15/who-is-next-the-murder-of-a-young-american-and-the-harvesting-of-his-body-parts-in-mexico/ (“Who Is Next? The Murder Of A Young American And The Harvesting Of His Body Parts In Mexico”)
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THE ERA OF ECONOMIC “QUICKSAND”
No offense to Ms. Kathryn Fitts, but there are a number of factors which have brought the world to a new era of permanent constraints to economic growth. By “World” I mean in this order: Japan, Europe (EU), Great Britain, and lastly the United States. Suffice it to say that the next 20 years will hardly resemble the last 40 at all.
We face ongoing declines in the number of live births in ALL Western Democracies which will and are crimping overall economic growth. Live Births in the U.S. have dropped -25% just since 1990 alone! So, in the long term, reduced economic growth (GDP) translates into overall stagnant wages when you pull-out the effects of inflation. Thus, more consumers take-out ever more debt and continue to pull consumption from the future into the here and now. In fact, this is what we have been doing en-masse since 2007. More and more debt from all sources (Private, Public, and Corporate) further suppresses economic growth over time. President Trump can not do any different, under these terms and conditions.
So, we are apparently in a prolonged period of deflation. Unfortunately, we are burdened by ever larger debt loads which have suppressed the Velocity of Money (M2 Velocity). As we spend more and more to service this overall debt load, taxes increase to attempt to keep the beast alive and less discretionary spending results. More credit to enhance consumer spending results in more debt payments and less discretionary money. Downward Spiral, as they say. As evidence of the trend thus far, just observe all the retail business that have already closed and more to come.
While the internet is seen to be the blame, the bigger forces at work are demographics ( reduced or declining population growth), declining labor force participation of 25-54 year olds, reduced productivity made worse by increasing debt service, and declining trend GDP ( <2.0% ).
Stagnant wages and constrained corporate profits around the world will further affect stock market returns ( projected to be maybe 3% + inflation/annually by the late John Bogle, Vanguard Founder) and will impact many public employee pension funds and their returns. Right now, according to the Pew Foundation Studies of Pension Funds, 33% of all public employee pensions are only 33% funded. These funds will assuredly fail and go insolvent, forcing benefit cuts of up to -50% in future years. In the meantime, property taxes will go way-up in some jurisdictions. In response, more residents relocate to low tax or no (income) tax states in an attempt to stay ahead of this progression.
The rest of the public employee pension funds can not "make it" long term with annual total returns less than 7% without either significant tax increases (California and CALPERS, for example) or benefit cuts. Some states have taken meaningful steps to reform public pensions by spreading the risk around using part pension and part 401(K), such as Utah and Arizona. These states will be relatively more stable financially in the future, but the trend of chronically slow economic growth and wages is way too strong and embedded for any of them to escape totally unscathed.
Therefore, its suggested everyone should expect and prepare to take a hit as "austerity" further envelopes the United States and most of the rest of the world, as well. It sure won't be fun anymore for those conditioned to get their jollies by going to the local mall and "shopping until they drop". Have to find another pass-time besides consuming.
We are ALL headed for trouble (civil unrest) and even worse, collectivism with a vengeance once President Trump is out-of-office. California is about 10 years ahead of the rest of the United States. Be advised, in the end, "there is no place to run, no place to hide". To me, it would appear we face many of the same circumstances in the global economy today as we had back in the 1930's when FDR began our journey down the road of Socialism in a big way.
So, we never went back to truly being a Republic since 1932 either. No public policy has worked or reversed this secular trend in my lifetime. I can clearly see it, while others can not. Believe me, we are locked-in. As things grind-down even more in the future, we face about a 50% chance of another major War, probably with Asia (China). We do not seem willing to go down without a fight. Sadly, we lack the political will to reform and restructure to encourage savings and not spending (consumption).
So, without true economic reforms, we just pile-on more debt, experience a few transient quarters of elevated GDP Growth and tax revenue, and then slump back-down to trend. Take on ever more debt and "rise and repeat". Cycles that make us feel good, then not so good over and over. ( like a drunk who sobers-up and then goes on yet another binder). Its as if we are stuck in quicksand and every attempt to extract ourselves causes us to just sink that much further. It even reminds me of the Greek Mythology of Sisyphus to an extent. The Greeks knew what Tragedy really is. We seem to be learning it anew. https://www.britannica.com/topic/Sisyphus
Ms. Kathryn Fitts financial analysis about ongoing "Deep State" systemic theft (heist) of public assets "out the back door" is quite disturbing. "Asset Stripping" from the Treasury while at the same time adding to the public debt is one area where we could improve our (collective) future but the political will is definitely not there and the public is so uninformed and dumbed-down they could never comprehend it and vote for financial reform anyway.
Basically, we are way too corrupt as a nation and internally "weak" to take the necessary corrective measures. So, like the Greeks when they fought the Persians, and lost and were taken into captivity (slavery) "we too must do what men must do and suffer what men must suffer".
So, the status quo is our collective fate as we sink further into the pit of (financial) quicksand. Its how all past empires or civilizations, such as Rome, declined and fell before us. History repeats because human nature never really changes through the ages. We all should at least know that much but many do not or don't care about what happened to the Roman Empire. So be it.
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Nothing is “written.” Ronald Reagan proved that; and Donald Trump is proving it again.
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IS TRADITIONAL CONSERVATISM DEAD IN AMERICA ?
Granted, the late President Ronald Reagan was a much better and therefore, popular president than any that preceded him since Kennedy or followed him. President Ronald Reagan was an era president, as well. During his period in office, he spoke and acted like a real or traditional conservative. In fact, he was the last of the traditional Republican conservatives, as it turned-out.
As much as President Trump is treated as a Republican champion, President Trump actually more closely resembles an independent in the way he administrates and conducts himself. Unlike the late Senator John McCain, President Trump is more of a genuine “Maverick” rather than a fake one. However, President Trump is NOT a “conservative” on account of all the new debt he is creating and adding to our already sizeable National debt. Rather, I regard President Trump as a kind of “progressive” in his own right, all marketing aside.
No true-blue conservative would add upwards of $1 TRILLION of annual deficits to our already sizeable national debt and then simply ignore it. So, on the contrary, our debt-based economic problems have not gone away and we are still suffering the same year-to-year anemic annual GDP as occurred under President Obama ( about 2%/year). Personality changes in the White House may or may not affect voter or investor sentiment, but it can never overrule the reality of debt and basic economics for very long, at least. Otherwise, we could just lay back and enjoy the continuing fruits of “Reaganomics” from back in the 1980’s.
This would not be remotely possible, since the whole world has changed radically since the Reagan Presidency. Any other view is more of a “reality show” than actual day-to-day reality. Traditional “conservatism”, except in places like Utah or maybe parts of Texas is dead, as Millineals are more amendable to socialism or at least, a much more aggressive and socially active government.
In fact, Millineal values have already changed the tenor of the U.S. Government and many state governments. This trend will continue and get even stronger in the future with eventual adoption of Universal Basic Income and Medicare for All or some other version of a new National Single Payer health care insurance policy option. Of course, to pay for more government services will necessitate higher taxes and more taxes upon everyone who is any kind of “producer”. We will grow even less productive and “lazy” as a nation when these govt. programs are introduced, mark my words.
See https://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html
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Thank you, Craig, for your comments.
First, John F. Kennedy was the most despicable president in U.S. history. If you or anyone else has any doubts whatsoever, please read the following article and all of the comments beneath it.
See https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/2010/10/04/john-f-kennedy-the-most-despicable-president-in-american-history/ (“John F. Kennedy: The Most Despicable President In American History”)
Among other things, Richard Nixon won the 1960 presidential election, but the Kennedys, Chicago’s mob boss Sam Giancana and others in the Mafia rigged the elections in Chicago and West Virginia, and tipped the election in JFK’s favor, which was traitorous unto itself.
Second, yes I agree, Donald Trump is America’s first Independent president, which is wonderful. He is not beholden to the despicable Left, to FAKE NEWS, or to the equally-despicable RINOS in the GOP like John McCain, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. Indeed, lots of us are ashamed that we voted for the latter three, except the only other choices were to vote for the racist, treasonous, anti-Semite Barack Obama, or not vote at all.
See, e.g., https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/2009/12/05/is-barack-obama-a-racist/ (“Is Barack Obama A Racist?”) and https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/2018/05/24/should-barack-obama-be-executed-for-treason/ (“Should Barack Obama Be Executed For Treason?”) and https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/2014/01/06/ariel-sharon-is-missed/#comment-12626 (“DEMOCRATS ARE ANTI-SEMITES”) and https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/2019/04/29/the-democrats-are-evil-but-smart-while-the-republicans-are-neanderthals-and-dumb/ (“The Democrats Are Evil But Smart, While The Republicans Are Neanderthals And Dumb”)
Lastly, your concerns about the debt are real.
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