Afghanistan, The Future Looks Grim For Those Left Behind

20 08 2021

  By Timothy D. Naegele[1]

Pat Buchanan—an adviser to Presidents Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford, and a former GOP presidential aspirant himself—has written a sobering article that discusses this obvious and ominous conclusion and its ramifications for all of us, as follows:

In Afghanistan, the mission failure appears complete.

The trillion-dollar project to plant Western democracy in a Muslim nation historically fabled for driving out imperial intruders has crashed and burned after 20 years, and the Taliban are suddenly back in power.

After investing scores of billions in training and arming a force of 350,000 Afghani troops, the U.S. could not stand up an army and a government that could survive our departure.

And the final U.S. departure from Hamid Karzai International Airport may become, like JFK’s Bay of Pigs, a synonym for American debacle.

Nor is the failure ours alone. Many of our principal allies were heavily invested. The British are now attempting to bring their people out of Kabul under the same conditions as ours.

The leader of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party and possibly the next chancellor of Germany, Armin Laschet, calls the withdrawal “the biggest debacle that NATO has suffered since its founding.”

Three decades ago, after the breakup of the USSR and the end of the Cold War, Republican Sen. Richard Lugar said that NATO, having lost the rationale for its existence — containment of the Soviet Union — would now have “to go out of area or go out of business.”

Cynics might say that, in Afghanistan, NATO did both.

After 9/11, “the most successful alliance in history” invoked Article 5 and backed the U.S. war to oust the Taliban and annihilate the Al Qaeda terrorists who had carried out 9/11. Many sent troops.

But there could be worse to come.

While there are about 4,000 U.S. troops at the Kabul airport, U.S. control does not extend beyond the airport perimeter.

When asked if U.S. troops could enter Kabul and extract American citizens, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin replied, “I don’t have the capability to go out and extend operations currently into Kabul.” Americans in Kabul and other cities must make their own way to the Kabul airport.

The U.S. thus depends today upon the sufferance of the Taliban to let the Americans through the gridlocked highway. Many Afghan allies are being impeded and turned back. Having aided our troops during the war, these Afghan allies face murderous reprisals and retribution.

There are other present perils.

A few mortar shells landing on the tarmac of the lone runway at HKIA, and no plane can fly in or out until the runway is repaired. The arrival of troops and supplies, and any daily departure of 5,000 to 9,000 people, would be halted.

If fighting is renewed, the Americans left in Kabul and other cities become hostages to the Taliban. And there are many more out there than the 52 Americans held by Iran in the hostage crisis that ended the presidency of Jimmy Carter.

The U.S. does, however, retain leverage. U.S. airpower can still do damage to the Taliban, and the U.S. can veto any International Monetary Fund money and cut the Taliban’s access to Afghanistan’s financial reserves in U.S. banks.

Without cash, the Taliban will have a hellish time providing for the necessities the country needs to stay viable.

Right now, the Americans and the Taliban need each other. The Taliban need time to consider their control, and the Americans need time to get their people and their Afghan allies out.

Thus, the Taliban are putting on a moderate face at the top level.

Yet, given the character of the Taliban, as revealed in its previous tenure, and the desire for revenge against those who have been killing Taliban comrades, the future looks grim for those left behind.

When Saigon fell in 1975, its armed forces went into re-education camps — concentration camps. Hundreds of thousands of civilians fled on rafts, many to their deaths in the South China Sea. The Cambodians who backed us underwent a genocide, with a fraction of the entire population annihilated by the Khmer Rouge of Pol Pot.

As for the damage done to Joe Biden’s presidency, it is significant and permanent. The collapse of the regime, and the botched withdrawal of U.S. troops, U.S. citizens and Afghan friends and allies, have tarnished any reputation for competence Biden had.

As for Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark Milley and Austin, it is hard to see either surviving long in their positions after learning they did not see coming the imminent and worst foreign policy debacle since the fall of Saigon.

Did the U.S. intelligence agencies see it coming? Did they fail to inform the Pentagon or White House?

After the Bay of Pigs in April 1961, former CIA Director Allen Dulles, who had a role in the failed invasion, was, after a decent interval of six months, cashiered.

One imagines that senior Biden officials’ heads will roll well before that date in the Biden administration. For in this disaster, it seems, no one saw it coming so soon, or becoming so sweeping.[2]

What Pat Buchanan is saying emphatically is that (1) our trillion-dollar project to plant Western democracy in a Muslim nation has failed dramatically; (2) our final departure from Kabul may become, like JFK’s Bay of Pigs, a synonym for American failure; (3) NATO may collapse, for all intents and purposes; (4) a few mortar shells landing on the tarmac of the lone runway in Kabul, and no plane can fly in or out, and the arrival of troops and supplies and any daily departure of American citizens and others would be halted; (5) our Afghan allies face murderous reprisals and retribution; (6) the Americans left in Kabul and other cities may become hostages to the Taliban; (7) the future looks grim for those left behind; (8) Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark Milley and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will be sacked; and (9) our intelligence agencies have failed us.

Obviously, the world is watching with horror or glee, depending on whether one is a friend or foe.  China may move on Taiwan, while Russia moves on Ukraine.  And the possibilities of 9/11-like attacks on the American mainland are not beyond the pale of reason, while Americans remain traumatized by the Coronavirus’ effects, physically, psychologically and economically—which China launched, and whether the vaccines are really effective.  Meanwhile, we have Brain Dead Joe Biden in the White House, with Willie Brown’s ho Kamala Harris standing in the wings to succede him.[3]

 

 

© 2021, Timothy D. Naegele

_____

 

[1]  Timothy D. Naegele was counsel to the United States Senate’s Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, and chief of staff to Presidential Medal of Freedom and Congressional Gold Medal recipient and former U.S. Senator Edward W. Brooke (R-Mass).  See, e.g., Timothy D. Naegele Resume-21-8-6  He has an undergraduate degree in economics from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), as well as two law degrees from the School of Law (Boalt Hall), University of California, Berkeley, and from Georgetown University.  He served as a Captain in the U.S. Army during the Vietnam War, assigned to the Defense Intelligence Agency at the Pentagon, where he received the Joint Service Commendation Medal (see, e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commendation_Medal#Joint_Service). Mr. Naegele is an Independent politically; and he is listed in Who’s Who in America, Who’s Who in American Law, and Who’s Who in Finance and Business. He has written extensively over the years (see, e.g., https://naegeleblog.wordpress.com/articles/), and studied photography with Ansel Adams; and he can be contacted directly at tdnaegele.associates@gmail.com   

[2] See https://buchanan.org/blog/aftermath-of-an-afghanistan-debacle-149926%22

[3] See also https://www.gingrich360.com/2021/08/18/with-the-talibans-victory-a-caliphate-rises-from-the-ashes/ (“With the Taliban’s Victory, a Caliphate Rises from the Ashes”) (“[A]fter President Biden announced his decision in April to withdraw all American forces from Afghanistan, the U.S. pulled its air support and intelligence for the Afghan military. As a result, the Afghans couldn’t operate. . . . The Biden administration even refused to allow private contractors from entering Afghanistan to service Afghan aircraft. . . . America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan is about to unleash hell on the Afghan people. That’s undeniable. Whether the withdrawal leads to disaster elsewhere in the world remains to be seen”)


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11 responses

20 08 2021
H. Craig Bradley

CONSOLATION PRIZE

China shares a border with Afghanistan, albeit a small one. ( No Great Wall Needed). The Chinese have already developed a business relationship with the Taliban and part of their “deal” is Chinese Embassies in the area are to be left alone.

This arrangement preceded our (hasty) evacuation this week. Now, its true Afghanistan just like much of the region will never be a like-minded Democracy at all. So, you could look at it as a indirect defeat of all the Western globalists (sic. elites) who want to impose Climate Change protocols and regulations around the world. China won’t be complying and as a matter-of-fact, neither will Russia.

Globalists ( The Left ) will just have to be content with controlling North America, England, and European Governments and leaders. That is enough territory for them to dominate. China and Russia will serve as counter weights to this usurpation of Democratic freedoms. You have to look at the bright side or at least, lighten-up a bit. We deserve what we got and everyone was in on it over the terms of 4 presidents of both parties. Take personal responsibility.

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20 08 2021
Timothy D. Naegele

Thank you, Craig.

See https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9912027/Doctors-say-concerned-Joe-Bidens-symptoms-age-78.html (“Is this man fit for office? Doctors say they would be concerned about ‘anyone’ with Joe Biden’s symptoms at age 78 after two brain aneurysms and a heart condition – which are BOTH linked to memory problems”)

The whole world is asking this, and our adversaries Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin know the answer in spades, and will be moving accordingly (e.g., Taiwan, Ukraine).

We have not witnessed the complete savagery of the Taliban yet, in the wake of the collapse of Kabul and Afghanistan, nor have we witnessed the effects on America’s other allies in the Middle East and globally.

The ramifications that Pat Buchanan discussed in his article, and that I have discussed in this and previous articles and comments, may manifest themselves in ominous ways.

Clearly, China and Russia will not be “fiddling while Rome burns.” They will be moving adroitly on a global basis.

See https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9912457/Putin-welcomes-Taliban-Russian-President-says-West-not-impose-outside-values.html (“Putin welcomes the Taliban: Russian President says the West should not impose ‘outside values’ on Afghanistan as China also moves towards recognising regime”); see also https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9912959/Majority-voters-dont-think-Biden-controls-White-House-capable-president-Poll.html (“52% of Americans don’t think Biden is mentally or physically up to the job of president and 51% believe someone else is pulling the strings at the White House, new poll finds”) and https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9910923/ABC-accused-Biden-interview-cover-President-said-son-Beau-served-Afghanistan-Navy.html (“ABC News is accused of editing Biden’s car-crash interview to avoid him seeming ‘incoherent and confused’: Transcripts from unaired segments reveal he mistakenly said his son Beau served in the Navy in Afghanistan not the Army elsewhere”) and https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9913187/Biden-tells-reporter-remember-question-concerning-speech.html (“Biden tells reporter ‘I can’t remember’ the first part of his question, calls the Qatar capital ‘Daho’ and is criticized for being in an ‘alternate reality’ on the Taliban in another concerning speech”) and https://www.foxnews.com/politics/defense-secretary-austin-contradicts-biden-americans-beaten-taliban-airport (“Defense Secretary Austin contradicts Biden, says Americans beaten by Taliban trying to reach airport”) and https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9913247/Pentagon-fact-checks-Biden-MINUTES-claimed-Al-Qaeda-NOT-present-Afghanistan.html (“Pentagon contradicts Biden MINUTES after his speech by saying officials are aware of reports Americans have been beaten by the Taliban on the way to Kabul airport and al-Qaeda IS still present in Afghanistan”) and https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9913761/US-highest-risk-terror-attack-9-11-withdrawal-Afghanistan.html (“US is at highest risk of a terror attack since 9/11 because Biden’s chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal will allow al-Qaeda to regroup, security experts claim”)

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20 08 2021
pmcd

What a sad, depressing mess.

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21 08 2021
Timothy D. Naegele

Yes, Philip, I agree completely. But it is likely to get FAR worse.

The Taliban hate us, and they are likely to be brutal to Americans and our allies in Afghanistan, and to anyone who has helped us. Afghan women and young girls know their savagery, in spades.

This may spread to other countries in the region, and globally, which China and Russia will encourage because it is in their best interests to do so.

Here at home, we may witness 9/11-like attacks. See, e.g., https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9913761/US-highest-risk-terror-attack-9-11-withdrawal-Afghanistan.html (“US is at highest risk of a terror attack since 9/11 because Biden’s chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal will allow al-Qaeda to regroup, security experts claim”)

And query how long Joe Biden will last before his presidency unravels? His only “insurance policies” are that Kamala Harris and Nancy Pelosi would succede him constitutionally.

And all of this is unfolding as the China-launched Coronavirus and its mutations spread nationwide.

See, e.g., https://www.npr.org/2021/08/20/1029837227/demand-covid-antibody-drugs-soars-regeneron-florida (“Antibody Drugs Are In High Demand As Delta Variant Drives A COVID Surge”); see also https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9914069/What-going-Tucker-Carlson-demands-know-Dems-turned-Joe-Biden.html (“‘What is going on here?’ FoxNews’s Tucker Carlson demands to know why top Dems and liberal news outlets including CNN have turned on Biden amid Afghan crisis and claims president’s closest advisers know he’s ‘senile'”)

The bottom line: none of this will end well, at least in the near term.

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21 08 2021
Timothy D. Naegele

See https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9914487/U-S-Embassy-tells-Americans-NOT-Kabul-airport-security-threats.html (“U.S. Embassy tells Americans NOT to go to Kabul airport due to security threats: Warning is issued a day after Biden said there was ‘no indication’ Taliban was stopping citizens during fumbled speech which was contradicted by the Pentagon”)

If it’s not safe for Americans, just imagine how those Afghans who have helped us must feel. They fear for their lives, and rightly so.

So so tragic, but predictable. . . . and it will only get far worse. As the world looks on in horror.

See, e.g., https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9914613/Desperate-Afghans-crushed-death-chaos-Kabul-airport.html (“Desperate Afghans are crushed to death in chaos at Kabul airport”) and https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/21/politics/biden-airlines-afghanistan-evacuation/index.html (“Biden administration may compel commercial US airlines to help transport Afghan evacuees”)

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23 08 2021
Timothy D. Naegele

See https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9917429/Embassy-staff-feels-betrayed-killed-Taliban-face-Kabul-airport-chaos.html (“‘It would be better to die under the Taliban’s bullet’: US diplomat cable reveals Afghan embassy staff feel BETRAYED by America and are being brutally beaten by Taliban outside Kabul airport where US soldiers try to save dehydrated kids”)

This is merely the tip of enormous suffering to come in Afghanistan for Americans and their allies, and for Afghans (especially women and young girls), as mentally-impaired Joe Biden’s tragic decisions are evident to the world. Needless to say, America’s allies globally don’t trust us anymore; and China and Russia will be exploiting this leadership vacuum.

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23 08 2021
morrow321

I am laughing at the AMERICAN IMPERIALISTS, the Council on Foreign Relations establishment nut jobs who told us we had to be in Afghanistan for 20 years.

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23 08 2021
Timothy D. Naegele

Thank you for your comment.

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24 08 2021
Timothy D. Naegele

See https://www.foxnews.com/politics/schiff-says-kabul-airport-a-very-attractive-target-for-isis-k-al-qaeda (“Schiff says Kabul airport a ‘very attractive target’ for ISIS-K, Al Qaeda”)

This situation may get much worse, with many Americans — including our military — at risk.

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24 08 2021
Timothy D. Naegele

See https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9922111/CIA-Director-William-Burns-held-secret-meeting-Taliban-leader-Abdul-Ghani-Baradar-Monday.html (“Defiant Taliban REFUSES to extend evacuation deadline despite secret talks with CIA boss: Regime issues chilling warning to westerners just minutes before G7 leaders plead with Biden to stay beyond August 31 – or leave refugees just 24 hours to get out”)

As anticipated, this is likely to become an unmitigated human disaster for Americans in Kabul, leave aside the Afghans who will become tragic victims of the victors.

See, e.g., https://www.wnd.com/2021/08/taliban-going-door-door-executing-christians/ (“Taliban going door-to-door executing Christians”)

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13 11 2021
Timothy D. Naegele

See https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10196443/Afghan-girls-tears-theyre-sold-starving-families.html (“Tears of the Afghan girls sold by their starving families”)

Brain Dead Joe Biden and the traitor Gen. Milley are responsible for this human tragedy.

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